Monsoon 2026 Was the Weakest in 11 Years. Here's What That Means for India

The rains have packed up and gone. And this year, they left us short-changed.

On 30 September, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed what farmers across the south and east had already felt in their bones: the 2026 monsoon was a letdown. The country got just 87% of the rain it normally does. That makes it the weakest monsoon since 2015.

In plain numbers, India received 759.4 mm of rain against a normal of 868.6 mm. That's a shortfall of about 13%.

So what went wrong? One word: El Niño. It's a warming of the Pacific Ocean that tends to choke off India's rains. And this time, it hit the south and east the hardest.

Here's how bad it got in some regions. East and Northeast India had their driest monsoon since 1901 — that's over a century of records. The southern peninsula didn't fare much better, logging its fourth-lowest rainfall since 1901.

Not everywhere suffered, though. Of the country's 36 weather zones, 18 got normal rain. Odisha even got more than usual, because low-pressure systems kept forming over it. As IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra put it, "The impact of El Niño was greater in the southern and eastern parts of the country."

Why should you care about any of this? Because more than half of India's farmland depends entirely on rain — no canals, no borewells, just the sky. When the monsoon falters, crops suffer, reservoirs run low, and food prices can climb.

There's a small silver lining. Despite the weak rains, farmers still managed to plant almost as much as last year. Sowing was only about 1.2% behind. Southern reservoirs, though, are worryingly low — sitting at just 50% of their capacity.

And the bad news isn't quite over. IMD expects October to stay drier than usual, with below-normal rain likely right through December. The El Niño is tipped to peak in November before it starts to fade.

For now, the message is simple. Keep an eye on your vegetable prices this winter, and spare a thought for the farmers in Karnataka, Maharashtra, and Telangana who were hit hardest.

The rain gods were stingy in 2026. Let's hope they're kinder next year.

Sources: India Meteorological Department (IMD), Business Standard, ETV Bharat.