KHAMENEI'S DEATH & FUNERAL
• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in a joint US-Israeli strike on February 28, 2026
• Family members were also killed in the same strike
• Over 20 million people expected in Tehran for the state funeral
• It is one of the largest state funerals in modern history
CEASEFIRE STATUS
• A ceasefire was reached under the Islamabad Memorandum
• Iran's negotiator says the February attack "failed" militarily
• The US ultimately requested the ceasefire — not Iran
• Doha peace talks are ongoing but stalled
IRAN'S RESPONSE WARNINGS
• Iran's top negotiator warns Iran "will respond" if the US and Israel do not fulfil commitments
• Iran's army commander vowed to "avenge blood" against enemies who killed Khamenei
• Iran's military posture remains on high alert
• The tone from Tehran is increasingly aggressive
WEST BANK
• Illegal Israeli settlers attacked Palestinians and foreign solidarity activists northeast of Ramallah
• Residents were trying to reach land threatened with confiscation
• Israeli government approved 13 new settlements amid the conflict
• Settler violence in the occupied West Bank is escalating
CASUALTIES (estimated, contested)
• Significant losses reported across Iran, Lebanon, Israel, US forces, and Gulf states
• Exact figures remain disputed between sources
KEY RISK
• The ceasefire is fragile
• Iran's retaliation threat is active
• The next 30 days are flagged as a high-risk window

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